The Algorithm
The Local Sales Pricing Model takes the geometric average of the 50 nearest sales within a 4 week period when a house was purchased.
And then compares that with the geometric average of the 50 nearest sales for the last 4 weeks for where we have completed sales figures.
The percentage difference in average prices is then applied to the original purchase price of the property to generate a current estimated price.
The Calculations
Purchase Date 21 Dec 2018
Geometric average (or mean) price of the nearest 50 properties sold within 4 weeks of this property.
The geometric average is used to reduce the impact of outliers in the sales price data.
£1,535,049
Furthest distance in meters we had to look to find 50 sales in the same time period 1868
Latest Purchase Price Data Date 29 Sep 2020
Geometric average price of the nearest 50 properties sold between 1 Sep 2020 and 29 Sep 2020 £738,719
Furthest distance in meters we had to look to find 50 sales in this time period 9957
Difference in meters between the search areas to find 50 sales.
This calculation should help you decide if the model is providing a useful estimate. If the differences in search areas is large, then the model is less likely to be giving a useful estimate.
8089
Percentage difference in the average house prices. -51.877 %
Loss in house value £-95,971
Estimated house price.
Remember this is just a model using changes in average house prices in the local area. For an accurate valuation always consult a professional valuer, or estate agent.
£89,028
The Pros and Cons

Based on actual sales data

The model is based upon actual completed sales figures.
Other models, for example the Halifax House Price Index are based on approved mortgage applications rather than completed sales.
Although mortgage approvals give a more timely index, not every approval leads to a completed sale.
Additionally within some districts many properties are purchased mortgage free by foreign nationals, this skews the Halifax and Nationwide House Price Indexes.

Model lags current market

The model's estimates lag behind the current market because it is based upon completed sales.
A typical house transaction takes around 8 weeks to complete, this creates a lag from the date the price is agreed to the date the transaction is recorded.
Therefore, on a rising market this model will underestimate the house price and on a falling market this model will overestimate the price.

Model doesn't adjust for home improvements

This is an algorithmic model which is based purely on changes to average house prices in the immediate area.
The model doesn't factor in any improvements made to the specific property.
This aspect of the model is not as bigger weakness as expected.
On average most homes get brought, get extended and improved, and then get sold in a seven year period.
Therefor the sample which we draw the averages from also contains houses which have had home improvements.
We always recommend that you use a professional valuer, or estate agent to get an accurate valuation.

Averages are not always comparable

The model finds the 50 nearest sales within a 4 week period to determine the average prices.
If the search area for the 50 nearest sales is very different for the two averages then the mix of types of houses used for the calculations is likely to be different.
So if the search area is very different then the model is not likely to give a useful estimate.

Ignores postcode boundaries

Postcode snobbery often impacts house prices in the UK.
Prices in one postcode can appreciate while houses in the next postcode stagnate.
This model doesn't consider the postcode when selecting the sample used to generate the average prices.
This can be viewed as both a positive and negative aspect of this model.
Sales used to determine the average price when the house was purchased on 21 Dec 2018
Distance (meters) Date Address Price Paid
0 21 Dec 2018 ONE HYDE PARK 100 UNIT C KNIGHTSBRIDGE £27,500,000
0 21 Dec 2018 ONE HYDE PARK, 100 PARKING SPACE B2-34 KNIGHTSBRIDGE £185,000
480 20 Dec 2018 11 GATE MEWS £561,560
513 4 Jan 2019 3 MONTPELIER TERRACE £625,000
596 10 Dec 2018 RUTLAND GATE HOUSE, 43 - 44 FLAT 2 RUTLAND GATE £1,940,000
617 10 Dec 2018 14 FLAT F CHESHAM PLACE £2,800,000
649 19 Dec 2018 25 ENNISMORE MEWS £3,200,000
746 14 Dec 2018 26 CLABON MEWS £5,500,000
815 10 Dec 2018 40 FLAT 1 LENNOX GARDENS £5,300,000
816 10 Dec 2018 40A LENNOX GARDENS £5,300,000
919 14 Dec 2018 CHESTERFIELD HOUSE FLAT 93 CHESTERFIELD GARDENS £1,450,000
1006 14 Dec 2018 69 FLAT 21 PRINCES GATE £1,300,000
1006 10 Dec 2018 71 FLAT A CADOGAN GARDENS £2,396,200
1013 7 Dec 2018 34 DONNE PLACE £2,000,000
1044 10 Dec 2018 21 EATON MEWS SOUTH £6,870,000
1056 13 Dec 2018 105 SIXTH FLOOR PREMISES PICCADILLY £209,784
1065 14 Dec 2018 23 FLAT A CADOGAN GARDENS £1,200,000
1113 21 Dec 2018 2 FLAT 1 DUNRAVEN STREET £3,050,000
1138 12 Dec 2018 80 CHESTER SQUARE £18,000,000
1146 10 Dec 2018 16 CULFORD GARDENS £780,000
1160 14 Dec 2018 NELL GWYNN HOUSE FLAT 218 SLOANE AVENUE £555,000
1160 4 Jan 2019 NELL GWYNN HOUSE FLAT 221 SLOANE AVENUE £522,000
1160 18 Dec 2018 NELL GWYNN HOUSE FLAT 339 SLOANE AVENUE £530,000
1168 10 Dec 2018 40 5 DRAYCOTT PLACE £2,490,000
1194 4 Jan 2019 CHELSEA CLOISTERS 416 SLOANE AVENUE £375,000
1197 20 Dec 2018 SLOANE AVENUE MANSIONS FLAT K2 SLOANE AVENUE £420,000
1254 20 Dec 2018 ALBION GATE FLAT 86 HYDE PARK PLACE £985,000
1256 14 Dec 2018 10 FLAT 4 GREEN STREET £3,800,000
1267 20 Dec 2018 7 GROUND AND GARDEN FLOOR FLAT GREEN STREET £3,125,000
1330 10 Dec 2018 LANCHESTER COURT 10 SEYMOUR STREET £2,050,000
1331 7 Dec 2018 WHITELANDS HOUSE FLAT 73 CHELTENHAM TERRACE £1,650,000
1331 12 Dec 2018 WHITELANDS HOUSE FLAT 40 CHELTENHAM TERRACE £785,000
1350 4 Jan 2019 MELTON COURT FLAT 66 ONSLOW CRESCENT £2,649,999
1372 21 Dec 2018 21 FLAT 26 SEYMOUR STREET £1,250,000
1383 21 Dec 2018 MAYFAIR CHAMBERS, 15 GROSVENOR HILL £232,000
1419 20 Dec 2018 21 SEYMOUR PLACE £20,400
1421 7 Dec 2018 7 MARKHAM SQUARE £5,700,000
1435 2 Jan 2019 49 GODFREY STREET £1,800,000
1436 7 Dec 2018 14 TOP FLOOR FLAT SYDNEY STREET £850,000
1479 11 Dec 2018 59 EDGWARE ROAD £400,000
1500 13 Dec 2018 5C DAVIES MEWS £12,501,600
1593 17 Dec 2018 13 - 14 FLAT 4 GLOUCESTER SQUARE £1,675,000
1603 21 Dec 2018 354 - 358 OXFORD STREET £40,750,000
1610 21 Dec 2018 25 RADNOR MEWS £1,175,000
1631 14 Dec 2018 11 SMITH TERRACE £3,000,000
1647 20 Dec 2018 FORSET COURT FLAT 114 EDGWARE ROAD £815,000
1676 14 Dec 2018 CHEYLESMORE HOUSE FLAT 69 EBURY BRIDGE ROAD £535,000
1693 14 Dec 2018 30 SHAWFIELD STREET £3,250,000
1761 14 Dec 2018 253 THE WATER GARDENS £870,000
1868 18 Dec 2018 5 WYNDHAM MEWS £1,663,000
Recent sales used to determine the average price in the local areas
Distance (meters) Date Address Price Paid
1078 1 Sep 2020 26 LOWER BELGRAVE STREET £4,450,000
1303 4 Sep 2020 38 FLAT 1 LOWER SLOANE STREET £186,437
1482 3 Sep 2020 17 DOVER STREET £34,200,000
1525 1 Sep 2020 PARK WEST FLAT 147 EDGWARE ROAD £415,000
1739 1 Sep 2020 19 FLAT 2 MASONS YARD £900,000
2098 3 Sep 2020 59 FLAT 6 HARRINGTON GARDENS £1,085,000
2286 1 Sep 2020 CHAUCER HOUSE FLAT 51 CHURCHILL GARDENS £545,000
2349 23 Sep 2020 27 THE LITTLE BOLTONS £14,100,000
2503 8 Sep 2020 69 GROUND FLOOR FLAT REDCLIFFE GARDENS £1,100,000
2705 8 Sep 2020 KENSINGTON HEIGHTS, 91 - 95 FLAT 41 CAMPDEN HILL ROAD £1,680,000
2863 3 Sep 2020 15A ARTESIAN ROAD £550,000
3056 3 Sep 2020 5 COURTNELL STREET £3,480,000
3307 14 Sep 2020 51 MOORE PARK ROAD £3,525,000
3347 7 Sep 2020 35 FLAT 2 PORTLAND ROAD £320,000
4050 4 Sep 2020 23 QUARRENDON STREET £1,290,000
4270 1 Sep 2020 6 SPRINGFIELD ROAD £5,125,000
4552 3 Sep 2020 393A FLAT 2 CLAPHAM ROAD £518,500
4579 1 Sep 2020 159 HARBUT ROAD £380,000
4681 4 Sep 2020 FLAT B, 5 AMOR ROAD £571,000
4751 1 Sep 2020 19 FLAT 2 AUCKLAND ROAD £860,000
4794 1 Sep 2020 TRINITY HOUSE, 377 FLAT 74 KENSINGTON HIGH STREET £1,725,000
5370 9 Sep 2020 50 SUDLOW ROAD £940,000
5503 4 Sep 2020 16 FLAT 2 WEDDERBURN ROAD £1,485,000
5614 9 Sep 2020 19 BECTIVE ROAD £1,175,000
5929 1 Sep 2020 58A CAMBERWELL CHURCH STREET £1,300,000
5972 1 Sep 2020 BLACKWELL HOUSE FLAT 14 OAKLANDS ESTATE £520,000
6328 2 Sep 2020 CANTERBURY COURT FLAT 2 BROMYARD AVENUE £318,000
6856 2 Sep 2020 13 MELROSE ROAD £1,330,000
6892 1 Sep 2020 3 GIRDWOOD ROAD £1,300,000
7029 1 Sep 2020 THE COACH HOUSE, 113 FIRST AND SECOND FLOOR FLAT UPPER TULSE HILL £450,000
7528 2 Sep 2020 40 ABBESS CLOSE £363,250
7655 2 Sep 2020 6 NORTH WORPLE WAY £715,000
7674 2 Sep 2020 17A ROMBERG ROAD £492,500
7775 8 Sep 2020 IMPERIAL WHARF, 2 FLAT 17 DARWEN PLACE £500,000
7817 1 Sep 2020 78 MELROSE AVENUE £1,110,000
7909 1 Sep 2020 28 FINSBURY PARK ROAD £2,000,000
7961 1 Sep 2020 36 CHOLMELEY CRESCENT £2,650,000
8191 1 Sep 2020 NORTH HILL COURT FLAT 9 NORTH HILL £300,000
8250 1 Sep 2020 16 THE LINK £585,000
8653 1 Sep 2020 36 MANDELA CLOSE £460,000
8744 1 Sep 2020 1 IVYDALE ROAD £575,000
8878 1 Sep 2020 101 CREST ROAD £430,000
8955 7 Sep 2020 137 BREDINGHURST OVERHILL ROAD £25,000
9003 2 Sep 2020 UNIT DA, 150 COLES GREEN ROAD £425,000
9212 1 Sep 2020 90 GROUND FLOOR FLAT INDERWICK ROAD £701,825
9456 3 Sep 2020 HILL COURT, 104 FLAT 10 WIMBLEDON HILL ROAD £635,000
9477 4 Sep 2020 26B HOMEFIELD ROAD £375,000
9674 1 Sep 2020 30 HOTHAM ROAD £520,000
9711 4 Sep 2020 4 THE KEIR £950,000
9957 1 Sep 2020 COLLINGWOOD COURT FLAT 13 QUEENS ROAD £545,000
Other information on this house

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