The Algorithm
The Local Sales Pricing Model takes the geometric average of the 50 nearest sales within a 4 week period when a house was purchased.
And then compares that with the geometric average of the 50 nearest sales for the last 4 weeks for where we have completed sales figures.
The percentage difference in average prices is then applied to the original purchase price of the property to generate a current estimated price.
The Calculations
Purchase Date 15 Jan 2018
Geometric average (or mean) price of the nearest 50 properties sold within 4 weeks of this property.
The geometric average is used to reduce the impact of outliers in the sales price data.
£1,086,872
Furthest distance in meters we had to look to find 50 sales in the same time period 2285
Latest Purchase Price Data Date 29 Sep 2020
Geometric average price of the nearest 50 properties sold between 1 Sep 2020 and 29 Sep 2020 £751,876
Furthest distance in meters we had to look to find 50 sales in this time period 9899
Difference in meters between the search areas to find 50 sales.
This calculation should help you decide if the model is providing a useful estimate. If the differences in search areas is large, then the model is less likely to be giving a useful estimate.
7614
Percentage difference in the average house prices. -30.822 %
Loss in house value £-11,626,069
Estimated house price.
Remember this is just a model using changes in average house prices in the local area. For an accurate valuation always consult a professional valuer, or estate agent.
£26,093,930
The Pros and Cons

Based on actual sales data

The model is based upon actual completed sales figures.
Other models, for example the Halifax House Price Index are based on approved mortgage applications rather than completed sales.
Although mortgage approvals give a more timely index, not every approval leads to a completed sale.
Additionally within some districts many properties are purchased mortgage free by foreign nationals, this skews the Halifax and Nationwide House Price Indexes.

Model lags current market

The model's estimates lag behind the current market because it is based upon completed sales.
A typical house transaction takes around 8 weeks to complete, this creates a lag from the date the price is agreed to the date the transaction is recorded.
Therefore, on a rising market this model will underestimate the house price and on a falling market this model will overestimate the price.

Model doesn't adjust for home improvements

This is an algorithmic model which is based purely on changes to average house prices in the immediate area.
The model doesn't factor in any improvements made to the specific property.
This aspect of the model is not as bigger weakness as expected.
On average most homes get brought, get extended and improved, and then get sold in a seven year period.
Therefor the sample which we draw the averages from also contains houses which have had home improvements.
We always recommend that you use a professional valuer, or estate agent to get an accurate valuation.

Averages are not always comparable

The model finds the 50 nearest sales within a 4 week period to determine the average prices.
If the search area for the 50 nearest sales is very different for the two averages then the mix of types of houses used for the calculations is likely to be different.
So if the search area is very different then the model is not likely to give a useful estimate.

Ignores postcode boundaries

Postcode snobbery often impacts house prices in the UK.
Prices in one postcode can appreciate while houses in the next postcode stagnate.
This model doesn't consider the postcode when selecting the sample used to generate the average prices.
This can be viewed as both a positive and negative aspect of this model.
Sales used to determine the average price when the house was purchased on 15 Jan 2018
Distance (meters) Date Address Price Paid
0 15 Jan 2018 22 THE BOLTONS £37,720,000
129 5 Jan 2018 29 CRESSWELL PLACE £2,310,000
134 24 Jan 2018 2 THE PENTHOUSE MAISONETTE AT CRESSWELL GARDENS £2,060,000
274 18 Jan 2018 50 REDCLIFFE ROAD £4,450,000
403 26 Jan 2018 5 FLAT J CRANLEY GARDENS £615,000
403 11 Jan 2018 13 FLAT 4 BRAMHAM GARDENS £2,313,000
416 5 Jan 2018 23 FLAT 2 REDCLIFFE GARDENS £1,050,000
465 29 Jan 2018 22 FLAT 9 COLLINGHAM GARDENS £1,290,000
465 19 Jan 2018 42 FLAT 5 BRAMHAM GARDENS £2,300,000
468 24 Jan 2018 80 FLAT 9 ONSLOW GARDENS £2,500,000
468 25 Jan 2018 3 FLAT 4 COURTFIELD GARDENS £3,200,000
488 15 Jan 2018 5 FLAT 22 ELM PARK GARDENS £1,080,000
499 4 Jan 2018 14 FLAT 1 REDCLIFFE GARDENS £1,150,000
499 10 Jan 2018 41 FLAT 3 FINBOROUGH ROAD £740,000
502 4 Jan 2018 3A WHARFEDALE STREET £515,000
514 10 Jan 2018 2 ELM PARK LANE £1,140,000
524 24 Jan 2018 ROBERTS COURT, 45 FLAT 15 BARKSTON GARDENS £1,750,000
537 19 Jan 2018 42 FLAT 10 ONSLOW GARDENS £2,300,000
546 5 Jan 2018 46 FLAT B FINBOROUGH ROAD £715,000
560 12 Jan 2018 17 ONSLOW MEWS WEST £2,300,000
584 26 Jan 2018 93 FLAT 5 QUEENS GATE £525,000
601 15 Jan 2018 42 - 44 FLAT 6 ELM PARK ROAD £1,486,875
605 26 Jan 2018 32 FLAT 2 COURTFIELD GARDENS £615,000
631 5 Jan 2018 18 IFIELD ROAD £1,925,000
647 26 Jan 2018 294 FLAT 2 OLD BROMPTON ROAD £625,000
672 16 Jan 2018 18 CHELSEA PARK GARDENS £9,000,000
673 24 Jan 2018 35 - 37 FLAT 8 EARLS COURT SQUARE £625,000
686 15 Jan 2018 74 CHELSEA PARK GARDENS £6,375,000
695 23 Jan 2018 12 FLAT 2 GRENVILLE PLACE £1,031,325
704 12 Jan 2018 5 ROSE SQUARE £3,750,000
770 12 Jan 2018 POINT WEST, 116 FLAT 675 CROMWELL ROAD £633,000
789 2 Jan 2018 14 REAR BASEMENT FLAT CORNWALL MEWS SOUTH £850,000
791 29 Jan 2018 106 GLOUCESTER ROAD £10,000,000
791 12 Jan 2018 110 APARTMENT 4 GLOUCESTER ROAD £3,000,000
806 17 Jan 2018 291 FLAT 5 KINGS ROAD £580,400
810 19 Jan 2018 91 CORNWALL GARDENS £80,000
816 8 Jan 2018 39 FLAT H EMPERORS GATE £1,470,500
827 24 Jan 2018 19 - 21 FLAT 5 LEXHAM GARDENS £1,307,000
844 26 Jan 2018 125 GROUND FLOOR SHOP AND BASEMENT EARLS COURT ROAD £11,000
911 15 Jan 2018 46 PAULTONS SQUARE £4,350,000
924 11 Jan 2018 55 BROMPTON PARK CRESCENT £585,000
928 26 Jan 2018 26 KYNANCE MEWS £1,800,000
934 26 Jan 2018 45 FLAT 2 ELVASTON PLACE £1,640,000
950 26 Jan 2018 ARGYLL COURT, 82 - 84 FLAT 18 LEXHAM GARDENS £800,000
1033 8 Jan 2018 10 FLAT STRATFORD ROAD £1,725,000
1159 5 Jan 2018 8 SOUTH END ROW £2,595,000
1186 15 Jan 2018 DE VERE COTTAGES 2 CANNING PLACE £2,725,000
1186 2 Jan 2018 DE VERE COTTAGES 5 CANNING PLACE £1,700,000
1186 5 Jan 2018 6 DE VERE MEWS £1,000,000
1244 19 Jan 2018 17 ANSDELL TERRACE £2,250,000
Recent sales used to determine the average price in the local areas
Distance (meters) Date Address Price Paid
200 23 Sep 2020 27 THE LITTLE BOLTONS £14,100,000
321 8 Sep 2020 69 GROUND FLOOR FLAT REDCLIFFE GARDENS £1,100,000
387 3 Sep 2020 59 FLAT 6 HARRINGTON GARDENS £1,085,000
1196 14 Sep 2020 51 MOORE PARK ROAD £3,525,000
1855 4 Sep 2020 38 FLAT 1 LOWER SLOANE STREET £186,437
1965 4 Sep 2020 23 QUARRENDON STREET £1,290,000
2163 8 Sep 2020 KENSINGTON HEIGHTS, 91 - 95 FLAT 41 CAMPDEN HILL ROAD £1,680,000
2637 7 Sep 2020 35 FLAT 2 PORTLAND ROAD £320,000
2654 1 Sep 2020 26 LOWER BELGRAVE STREET £4,450,000
2979 1 Sep 2020 159 HARBUT ROAD £380,000
3043 1 Sep 2020 CHAUCER HOUSE FLAT 51 CHURCHILL GARDENS £545,000
3052 3 Sep 2020 15A ARTESIAN ROAD £550,000
3176 3 Sep 2020 5 COURTNELL STREET £3,480,000
3202 4 Sep 2020 FLAT B, 5 AMOR ROAD £571,000
3249 1 Sep 2020 PARK WEST FLAT 147 EDGWARE ROAD £415,000
3391 9 Sep 2020 50 SUDLOW ROAD £940,000
3424 1 Sep 2020 19 FLAT 2 AUCKLAND ROAD £860,000
3501 9 Sep 2020 19 BECTIVE ROAD £1,175,000
3639 3 Sep 2020 17 DOVER STREET £34,200,000
3848 1 Sep 2020 19 FLAT 2 MASONS YARD £900,000
4600 3 Sep 2020 393A FLAT 2 CLAPHAM ROAD £518,500
4784 2 Sep 2020 13 MELROSE ROAD £1,330,000
4849 1 Sep 2020 3 GIRDWOOD ROAD £1,300,000
5199 2 Sep 2020 CANTERBURY COURT FLAT 2 BROMYARD AVENUE £318,000
5389 1 Sep 2020 BLACKWELL HOUSE FLAT 14 OAKLANDS ESTATE £520,000
5509 1 Sep 2020 6 SPRINGFIELD ROAD £5,125,000
5544 2 Sep 2020 6 NORTH WORPLE WAY £715,000
5670 1 Sep 2020 TRINITY HOUSE, 377 FLAT 74 KENSINGTON HIGH STREET £1,725,000
5954 1 Sep 2020 78 MELROSE AVENUE £1,110,000
6484 2 Sep 2020 17A ROMBERG ROAD £492,500
6731 1 Sep 2020 THE COACH HOUSE, 113 FIRST AND SECOND FLOOR FLAT UPPER TULSE HILL £450,000
6830 1 Sep 2020 58A CAMBERWELL CHURCH STREET £1,300,000
6944 4 Sep 2020 16 FLAT 2 WEDDERBURN ROAD £1,485,000
7225 1 Sep 2020 16 THE LINK £585,000
7322 2 Sep 2020 40 ABBESS CLOSE £363,250
7524 4 Sep 2020 26B HOMEFIELD ROAD £375,000
7541 3 Sep 2020 HILL COURT, 104 FLAT 10 WIMBLEDON HILL ROAD £635,000
7673 4 Sep 2020 4 THE KEIR £950,000
8043 1 Sep 2020 30 HOTHAM ROAD £520,000
8385 1 Sep 2020 36 MANDELA CLOSE £460,000
9021 8 Sep 2020 27A MARIAN ROAD £245,000
9278 1 Sep 2020 101 CREST ROAD £430,000
9380 7 Sep 2020 137 BREDINGHURST OVERHILL ROAD £25,000
9525 2 Sep 2020 UNIT DA, 150 COLES GREEN ROAD £425,000
9699 1 Sep 2020 1 IVYDALE ROAD £575,000
9739 1 Sep 2020 36 CHOLMELEY CRESCENT £2,650,000
9899 1 Sep 2020 NORTH HILL COURT FLAT 9 NORTH HILL £300,000
9899 8 Sep 2020 IMPERIAL WHARF, 2 FLAT 17 DARWEN PLACE £500,000
9928 2 Sep 2020 95 THE AVENUE £1,805,000
Other information on this house

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